Not long ago, we were thrilled by the possibilities of globalization, imagining a future where humanity would unite beyond borders. Many hoped this unity would lead to the pinnacle of civilization. But today, it’s clear that we might not have been ready for such an interconnected world. Despite our shared humanity, we struggle with our differences. Political divides are deepening, racism persists, and some people resist new scientific discoveries. Far too often, we reduce our ideological opponents to stereotypes, seeing them as bigots, snowflakes, or simply wrong.

In The Certainty Trap, Ilana Redstone argues that we need to let go of our need to be right and avoid falling into the “certainty trap.” The book explores how we often fail to see one another as fellow citizens, viewing each other instead as adversaries to conquer. We’re so fixated on being right that we rarely consider we might be wrong, or that others might also be wrong. We forget that people experience life in different ways, leading to diverse perspectives, even when we share the same basic knowledge.

Redstone’s The Certainty Trap isn’t a manifesto on moral absolutes, nor does it preach moral relativism, the idea that no one has the right to judge another’s beliefs or practices. Instead, the book offers a guide for those concerned about the future and willing to question their own moral superiority. It’s a book for anyone who wants to understand society more deeply and, perhaps, gain insight into themselves.

One of Redstone’s key points is that acknowledging the possibility of being wrong is a powerful aspect of learning. Embracing uncertainty can build trust and credibility, acting as a safeguard against becoming too sure of ourselves. Certainty leads us to generalize, often because we discard information that doesn’t fit our beliefs. We’re convinced of our conclusions about others because we ignore anything that might contradict them.

Summary

Narrow-Mindedness

When we label one person right and another wrong, we often fall into a trap of narrow-mindedness. This kind of thinking assumes that our views are the only valid ones, overlooking the complexity in others’ perspectives. It creates a world where we fail to see each other as fellow citizens and instead view one another as adversaries. When we believe our perspective is unquestionably correct, we limit ourselves and shut down any possibility for growth or understanding.

The Blind Certainty Trap

Blind certainty can be like an invisible prison, keeping us trapped in our own perspective. When we hold our beliefs with no room for doubt, we not only stop asking questions but also behave as if no questions need to be asked. This certainty can make us sloppy in our thinking. We forget that calling one thing right and another wrong only makes sense if we’ve truly examined the reasoning behind those labels.

Self-righteousness often gives us a sense of moral superiority, leading us to view those who disagree as morally flawed. It’s easy to feel justified in our outrage, but often, we haven’t even stopped to understand where that outrage is coming from.

Perhaps the most dangerous part of certainty is how stealthily it creeps into our thinking. We think we’re seeing the world through a window, clear and obvious to anyone with eyes. But without even realizing it, we assume our views are universally correct.

Settled Question Fallacy

Our certainty leads us to accept some ideas as “settled” without questioning them. We treat opposing views as misguided or even dangerous, dismissing them as if they hold no value. The root of this distorted thinking is our willingness to treat our knowledge as definitive. This trap often comes with a sense of moral license—we judge others harshly, convinced that our own beliefs are the only valid ones.

A helpful approach is to challenge this fallacy with intellectual humility. It’s important to remember that all knowledge has an element of uncertainty. The healthiest mindset involves skepticism toward definitive claims, recognizing that any answer could be incomplete.

Intellectual Humility and the Willingness to Be Wrong

One of the most critical aspects of knowledge is the willingness to be wrong. Intellectual humility means acknowledging that our understanding of the world is provisional and may change. By doing this, we open ourselves to new ideas and foster trust. Accepting that we don’t know everything helps us avoid the pitfalls of certainty and allows us to explore complex issues more honestly.

Questions like, “Are there other (non-hateful) reasons someone might think differently?” or “Is this really the only possible explanation?” can prompt us to explore alternative perspectives. The goal isn’t to change minds immediately but to appreciate the complexity of the issues at hand.

Social Consequences of Certainty

Certainty has far-reaching social consequences. It can foster extremism, erode trust, and fuel political polarization. When people believe their views are absolutely right, it becomes hard to live alongside those who disagree. This lack of social trust leads to ideological divides and an adversarial political culture, which in turn create gridlock within governments.

Political polarization can result in groupthink, where like-minded individuals make more extreme decisions collectively than they would alone. To counteract this, we need to recognize the humanity in those we disagree with. By doing so, we can lessen our harsh judgments and create a more trusting society.

The Fallacy of Equal Knowledge in Science

While science seeks to understand the world, it doesn’t provide us with absolute answers. Scientific theories are fundamentally probabilistic, they explain the world with a degree of uncertainty. Forgetting this leads to the Fallacy of Equal Knowledge, where we mistakenly believe our conclusions are final.

Science is an iterative process. Each answer is just a step toward greater understanding, not a final declaration of truth. When it comes to human behavior, scientific explanations are always probabilistic, meaning there’s always a chance we’re wrong.

In recognizing the provisional nature of scientific knowledge, we not only foster credibility but also build trust. This awareness serves as a reminder that certainty is often just an illusion, and our knowledge will always have room to grow.

My Favorite Bits

Not all certainty is a trap. The trap is when certainty leads us to dismiss, demonize, and judge others harshly, especially on heated political issues.

Ilana Redstone, The Certainty Trap: Why We Need to Question Ourselves More―and How We Can Judge Others Less

---

Author: Ilana Redstone

Publication date: 2 September 2024

Number of pages: 248 pages

---